The future has become far more unpredictable for Muslim Americans—and for Muslims across the globe.
The future has become far more unpredictable for Muslim Americans—and for Muslims across the globe.
Republican presidential nominee and former U.S. President Donald Trump greets a Michigan Muslim community leader at a rally in Novi, Michigan, U.S., on October 26, 2024. (REUTERS/Carlos Osorio)
The outcome of the 2024 American presidential election results certainly revealed the raw unfiltered face of right-wing American populism, raising the inevitable question: What does this mean for the future of American Muslims? – and the Muslims worldwide affected by the notorious reputation of American foreign policy?
What is striking in this election can be seen in the Muslim voter profile, a demographic that makes up around one million voters. In a historic shift, Muslim and Arab voters broke the two-decade-long streak of Democrat loyalty, splitting their vote between candidate Jill Stein and Donald Trump.
A poll conducted by The Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR) showed that Trump received around 21% of the Muslim vote. The crucial Swing State; Michigan (a state with the largest American majority in the country) saw 42.5% of the vote in favour of him. This composition is shocking, but whilst commentators may see this as a move of self-sabotage, its reality is far more complex.
On Gaza
The proliferation of Trump votes by the Muslim profile came largely as a retaliation to the perceived shortcomings of the Democrat’s last term, with one of the biggest being the issues being the handling of The Gaza war.
Harris and Biden’s weightless and fraudulent promise of a ceasefire left the American Muslim angry – leaving a portion of the vote to trickle toward red. This left Trumps team to take the advantage by weaponizing his anti-war message to disengage from the Middle East.
In an interview when asked about Israel’s war his brash stance to “get over with it” and “bring peace” can be said to capitalize on the frustration of Americans who want to see taxpayer dollars redirected from foreign wars to domestic priorities. Yet don’t be fooled, the Israeli-American relationship goes beyond the prowess of the US presidency.
Despite the war being bad for business – the American deep state’s policy on its pro-Israel stance will not change, it has been the narrative since the conception of the Israeli state in 1948. Washington’s unwavering support for Israel is deeply rooted in the aftermath of World War II, and the machinations of its deep state politics to take a different trajectory is unlikely to change.
This is due to several factors, one of the key reasons being the United States’ desperate attempt to maintain its already diminishing hegemonic power and influence in the Middle East.
The act of defiance that voted in Mr. Trump can be classified as self-sabotage. As much as the desperation on Gaza is valid, Trump’s track record of backing the Israeli state doesn’t deviate from the status quo. From the Abraham accords to moving the embassy in Jerusalem, the anti-war effort doesn’t mean cutting a fair deal for the Palestinians.
His rhetoric often conflates any effort to the pro-Palestinian cause as being “pro-Hamas”, hence commentators like David Makovsky, director of the program on Arab-Israel Relations at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy states that enigma of “ending the war” lies in an enigma of a “how”. However, one thing that is certain is that it will be done on Israel’s terms.
Israel already optimistic about the move is now pushing for a complete annexation of the Westbank. Israel’s minister of finance Bezalel Smotrichhas already been vocal and quite optimistic that the Trumps administrations support will be no less than helpful. According to Al Jazeera, Smotrichas has already started the groundwork to push for the move – addressing the Defence Ministry’s Settlement Directorate and Civil Administration to lay the groundwork for annexation.
Remember the infamous travel ban on Muslims? Trump stated a ban on refugee resettlement calling them “terror infested areas” off which he was referring to the Gaza strip. Currently the UN says that there are over a million people displaced from the ongoing war, severely impacting the basic wellbeing of Palestinian citizens.
America, Trump, and Iran
Another key factor to address in this conversation would be Iran. Whilst the world preps for the return to Donald trump, his second iteration to power has experts still assuming he will take a “maximum pressure” strategy – whilst this has not been laid out in detail, the Washington institute of for near east policy has stated that rather than abandoning the infamous JCPOA as he did in 2018, Trump’s approach would likely introduce securing more stringent restrictions on Iran’s nuclear program.
Iran’s nuclear advancement since 2018, may also give them the edge potentially forcing the mood of the trump administration to be more negotiating, yet the highly polarized US-Iranian dynamic leaves expert still eluded as to what’s to come.
Immigration and the American Muslim Identity
It is no surprise that Trump’s foreign policy remains detrimental for the Arabs of the Middle East, but even when we look at the effect of the Trump presidency to come, it unfolds an even darker truth.
Starting off with Trump’s signature issue: immigration. The continuum to impose a ban on an influx of immigrants is something that is on the top priority of the Trump administration.
As the president elect now settles in office, expert rights groups are extrapolating that the Trump administration selection in his cabinet already point toward a hard-line approach to immigration, announcing that Tom Homan, a well-known and notorious immigration and customs officer will serve as his leading right hand man.
For the moment, over million migrants in the US rely on the temporary protection status (TPS) – and from this concept it is important to stress that nothing in Harris’s agenda would’ve complicity restrict immigration from Arab Muslim countries, currently something of a possibility due to the instability facing the region amidst the wars in Gaza and Lebanon.
However, with a stroke of a pen, the attack on the TPS promises a frenzy of costly mass deportations that would drain the taxpayer dollar. There was even leeway to extend the Temporary Protected Status to Lebanese nationals, entirely plausible under a Harris administration but the boat for such a promise now remains sunk in a graveyard of Trump’s America.
Uncertain Horizons
There are so many more potential faucets to cover when forecasting the effects of Trump’s second term, and as much as many things remain opaque, one thing is certain: The future has become far more unpredictable for Muslim Americans—and for Muslims across the globe.
