GeneralMiddle East

On the brink of war: The Saudi Arabia purge is just the beginning…

GeneralMiddle East

On the brink of war: The Saudi Arabia purge is just the beginning…

Are we on the brink of the most devastating war in the Middle East in modern history?


Are we on the brink of the most devastating war in the Middle East in modern history?

This piece by Abdel Bari Atwan was originally posted here

Our region stands on the brink of war. We should not let small details — such as the resignation of Lebanese Prime Minister Saad al-Hariri’s resignation or the detention of princes and former ministers in Saudi Arabia — divert us from the big picture and the real developments taking place behind the scenes. The really dangerous phase is the one that will follow Crown Prince Muhammad Bin-Salman’s purge on the domestic Saudi front. It may be the precursor to scenarios for a regional war that could, without exaggeration, end up being the most devastating in its modern history.

All that is currently happening is part of a carefully planned and crafted scheme, and the prelude to a sectarian war waged in ‘Arab nationalist’ guise against the growing power of ‘Shia’ Iran and its surrogates in Yemen, Lebanon and Iraq with American, regional and Israeli backing.

The old Saudi Arabia is no more. Wahhabism is breathing its last, has been all but buried and is in the process of becoming history. A fourth Saudi state, dressed in the garb of modernity and based on different alliances, is being born.

When its would-be founder and man of the moment, Muhammad Bin-Salman, accuses Iran of mounting a ‘direct military attack that may amount to an act of war’ against his country by allegedly supplying missiles to factions in Yemen, and his stance is endorsed and supported by the US, it is clear that a new American-led alliance is taking shape in the region.

Muhammad Bin-Salman’s domestic purge, including the detention of 11 princes and scores of businessmen and former officials under the banner of fighting corruption, is only a first phase. It seems to haves proceeded smoothly so far, without encountering any serious obstacles.

The man now has now brought the four major pillars of state power – the economy, the security and military forces, the media and the religious establishment (both the official Council of Senior Ulema and the unofficial ‘awakening’ clerics) — totally under his control. He has thrown all his opponents, and anyone who uttered any criticism of his rule, behind bars (or, in the case of the princes and other high-ranking figures, incarcerated them in a luxury hotel for now). The latest round of detentions is unlikely to be the last, for we are dealing here with a bulldozer that levels everything that stands in its path.

In due course, Muhammad Bin-Salman will move on to what we believe will be the second and more serious phase, that of military confrontation.

This could include the following steps:

— First, precipitating a military confrontation with Iran against the backdrop of the crushing siege on Yemen, after imposing a total land, air, and sea blockade of the country on the pretext of preventing Iranian missiles from reaching the Houthis.

– Secondly, forming a new alliance along the lines of the Desert Storm coalition formed in 1990 to expel Iraqi forces from Kuwait. Candidates for membership in addition to Saudi Arabia and the UAE include UAE, Jordan, Egypt, Sudan and Morocco. (The King of Morocco has, coincidentally, been in the UAE capital Abu-Dhabi reportedly seeking to mediate with Saudi Arabia over the recent detentions: but he was sent a clear message from Riyadh not to interfere in what is happening inside Saudi Arabia, according reliable sources).

– Third, the bombardment of Lebanon and destruction of its infrastructure on the pretext of trying to eradicate Hezbollah. Such an assault would prompt the party to retaliate with intensive missile strikes against Israel, and would be more likely than ever before to drag in Iran and Syria.

– Fourth, an invasion of Qatar by Egyptian, Emirati and Saudi forces aimed at overthrowing its regime, precipitating a clash with the 30,000-strong Turkish force deployed there.

– Fifth, an American-Saudi-Israeli counteroffensive in Syria aimed at recapturing the areas lost by the US and its allies’ rebel proxies such as Aleppo, Homs and Deir az-Zour. The US cannot easily stomach its defeat in Syria at the hands of Russia and Iran, even at the risk of causing a collision with Russia. It deliberately foiled the Syrian national dialogue conference in Sochi which Moscow had called for by getting the Syrian opposition to boycott it.

– Sixth, mobilizing the Kurdish militias in northern Iraq and Syria as US proxies in these wars with the aim of weakening and destabilizing Iran, Turkey, and Iraq.

These are just the most obvious of the steps that may be taken by the new US-led alliance – whatever it chooses to call itself.

But none of this means that it is assured of success in achieving its aims and reshaping the region to its specifications.

The counter-scenario may be that of the consolidation of an Iranian-Syrian-Turkish-Iraqi alliance with which Russia would sympathize to begin with, and which it may eventually end up leading. These countries combined possess formidable missile arsenals which would mostly be aimed at Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Israel. The targeted states’ much-vaunted US-made Patriot anti-missile systems would be ineffective in the face of intensive strikes by thousands of missiles fired simultaneously.

The gauge of success in this anticipated and possibly imminent regional war would be the destruction of Iran, regime-change in Qatar and the eradication of Hezbollah. But its failure would mean devastation for Saudi Arabia, Israel and the UAE and the dismemberment of the Saudi kingdom into fragments.

We are neither soothsayers nor fortune-tellers. Nevertheless, this may prove to be the last war that transforms the region, changing its states, its borders, and perhaps its populations as well. The Arabs and Iranians will certainly survive such a cataclysm. But can Israel in its current form survive it too?

Now more than ever, we need your support…

The Muslim Vibe is a non-profit media platform aiming to inspire, inform and empower Muslims like you. Our goal is to provide a space for young Muslims to learn about their faith as well as news stories affecting them, so we can reclaim the Muslim narrative from the mainstream.

Your support will help us achieve this goal, and enable us to produce more original content. Your support can help us in the fight against Islamophobia, by building a powerful platform for young Muslims who can share their ideas, experiences and opinions for a better future.

Please consider supporting The Muslim Vibe, from as little as £1 – it will only take a minute. Thank you and Jazakallah.

Keep Reading

2 Comments. Leave new

  • God Bless all of you at “muslimvibe”!
    You allow me to post my vitriol on here,
    I love people, and I hate evil.
    You allow me Freedom of Speech on your site.
    I was blocked from your nemesis’ site.!?
    (“confessor of islamphobia”).
    Thank you for letting me rant about what I think is contrived “islamphobia”.
    You “Can Handle the Truth” to paraphrase jack nicholson/tom cruise.
    here goes (I make tommy robinson sound like a choir boy, lol):
    A ₽25Billion Pound Class Action Lawsuit by a large number of the child-rape victims and their families and all remaining truly Patriotic Britons against any & all who were involved or in any way enabled this egregious assault on decent civilized uk public health, safety, security and civilization itself:
    -perpetrators and family/friends who knew.
    -mosque staff who encouraged & knew.
    -any colluding ngo’s such as cair mb etc.
    -the pakstan “gov’t” for non-disclosure.
    -all levels of uk “gov’t/police/” for dereliction.
    -the EU, UN, & other foreign seditionists.
    -all levels of “education” for same as “gov’t”.
    -all “social service/child aid” staff for same.
    -specific’govt’persons such as “mayor” khan.
    The lawsuit settlement would include:
    -prison for ALL defendants incl “gov’t”.
    -lifelong parole conditions for all with return to prison if breach.
    -immediate firing, clawback of past wages, cancel pensions, stripping of assets,
    -block further employ in positions of access, authority or power over others, especially youth.
    -deportation (after prison) of foreign born defendants,
    -re-education program for those (not deported) where they are not allowed back into society until they renounce their perverse human rights abuse, hate ideology & paedophile mysoginy (strictly vetted by polygraph & psych analysis).
    -immediate travel ban against anyone suspected of perverse, paedophile, mysoginist, racist, supremacist or hate ideology.
    -fastrack accept (with careful vetting) those genuinely fleeing persecution such as Sudanese/Iraqi Christians or Egyptian Copts.
    -strict surveillance & immediate apprehension of ANYONE counselling sedition or acts against the safety & security of Brittish Society (choudary scum should’ve been jailed the first day he preached his shariaDiahrea bigotry).
    This successful large scale legal action would immediately bring safety & security to the remaining true citizens of once proud, now shameful britain.
    It would also strip the enablers & subversives of the ability to continue attacks on the state.
    It would also send a clear msg to all who seek to act on the clear instructions & life example of the satanic verses.
    Take It To Court..!!!
    I Welcome 50Millilion imigrants of any type if they come to escape evil and wish to respect, participate in, and flourish in a civilized decent society.

  • This is a well thought out article by Atwan. This part is obvious that the defeat of the Israeli Secret Intelligence Services in Syria and Iraq is hard to fathom by the power be. Hence they are lashing out in whatever way they can to recoup their losses. However its up to the people of these countries like Saudi Arabia, Qatar, UAE, Jordan, Egypt , Morocco to rise up against their governments and stop another war!!! Israel can only be defeated if the people of these countries rise up and not allow their governments to fight any war!!!! May Allah(swt) help the Middle East and Muslim countries in general!!!!